Real Trends in Las Campanas Real Estate, Q3, 2022

Dear Friends,   

Welcome to the first issue of Real Trends in Santa Fe Real Estate!  We are both delighted to have teamed up to bring you the best real estate service and knowledge in Santa Fe.  Our professional history and friendship go back 30+ years, including working closely together for many years on the Las Campanas Realty sales team.  We are available to answer any questions you have or to meet and discuss the market in more detail. 


The basic indicators through August, year-over-year, show mixed results. Whereas Total Sold Units and Total Dollar Volume has decreased respectively by 20% and 9.5%, the average price of homes rose approximately 13% ($680K to $771K). These facts are most likely explained by a substantial reduction of inventory which dropped by nearly 40% in Q1, 2022 over Q1, 2021. But more recently, in June of 2022, the spread between active inventory and number of sales reflected a dramatic spread from 8% to nearly 60% by comparison to June, 2021. More inventory and fewer sales will create a shift, and to many, a needed adjustment from a searing marketplace to a more reasonable pace. Redfin, a national data collection site, based on their criteria describes the Santa Fe market as “somewhat competitive” in comparing it to other national marketplaces. Their data points state that the average home these days sells for about list price and will go “pending” in about 36 days. But “Hot Homes,” meaning well priced or unique, can sell for an average of 4% above ask in roughly 11 days. We are also seeing far fewer multiple offers and, lately, price adjustments are outpacing new listings. 
Although the general trend is slowing, Santa Fe remains a highly desirable option on the national scene. Most experts in the field expect the pace of home sales to slow, but there is still a pent up demand for housing which should account for a good year in sales. We simply should not expect the market to be as bullish as the last 2 years. 


As some of you may remember, I (Gary) was part of the opening team at Las Campanas as V.P. of Sales and stayed on board for 6 years. Since then I have been a broker in 14 real estate markets in some of the most desirable destination areas in the country and Mexico. My choice to return to Santa Fe reflects my love of the area. And, as a former Las Campanas home owner and member of the club, it remains a very special place for me. 
There are obvious basic differences between the county market and Las Campanas. The median average sales price in July, 2022 was $1.75 million (up 15.5% year-over-year), more than double that in the county. Price per square foot of $548 (up 24%) compared to $341 (up 9.5%) in the county. The price per square foot reflects the higher percentage of new builds. Also for a slight majority of buyers, Las Campanas is a club as well as a real estate transaction. But in general, it’s not hard to argue that as Santa Fe goes, so goes Las Campanas. The number of sales and the total dollar volume tell a similar tale as of that in the county. From January through the end of August year-over-year, sales numbers were down 47% (from 51 in 2021 to 27 in 2022). The total dollar volume also reflects a considerable reduction of 42% (from $90M to just over $53M). While the percentage of sales prices were 15.5% higher, the difference can once again be offset by much lower inventory in 2021.  
Most homes in Las Campanas sell for about list price in around 39 days. Well priced homes historically have been selling for about 2% over asking price in only 22 days, very similar to the average days on the market in the county.  Currently however, the average number of active listings is on the rise from the preceding two years. This supply factor could likely impact not only list prices, but average days on the market as well moving into the fall. It is notable that home sales through December do not drop precipitously, but rather hold fairly steady to summer stats through late fall into winter.  Like the county, sales should remain fairly strong. But one would expect overpriced homes to demand reductions in price, or risk languishing on the market.


From Santa Fe Association of Realtors press release dated October 4, 2022

County median home prices increased 8% from $713,492 in 2021 to $775,000 this quarter. County home sales dropped by 22% from 234 units sold in 2021 compared to 181 units in the same Quarter of 2022. During this same period, City of Santa Fe median home prices rose by 21% from $475,000 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to $575,500 this quarter. City home sales decreased by 29% with 226 units sold this quarter compared to 321 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The overall volume of home sales dropped from $443M in 2021 to $365.1M in the 3rd Quarter of 2022 or by 17%.

Condo and townhome sales fell this quarter by 26% with a total of 129 units sold compared to 176 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021. The median price of condo/townhomes increased by 23% or from $357,000 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to $440,000 in 2022. Overall land sales dropped by 45% from 92 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to 50 this quarter. Overall land prices dipped by 11% from $163,250 in 3rd Quarter of 2021 to $145,000 this quarter. The volume of land sales dropped by 52% or from $18.3M in 2021 to $8.7M in the 3rd Quarter of 2022.

The inventory of single family homes for sale in the City and County of Santa Fe decreased by 2% from a total of 315 in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 to 308 this quarter with a 2.2 month’s supply of inventory. Days on Market until Sale noted a jump up to 43 days for both single family homes and condos/townhomes this quarter.

“The Santa Fe housing market along with much of the country experienced a rebalancing shift with slowing home and land sales facing growing market pressure on prices,” offered Andrea Dobyns, 2022 President of the Santa Fe Association of REALTORS®. “As the Federal Reserve increases mortgage rates to address inflation, the housing market is responding,” she added.