Release Date: September 2, 2008 June 2008 Key Characteristics All 25 MSAs continue to exhibit the weakness of the housing market from June 2007 to June 2008. 23 MSAs declined and two were neutral.
While Southwest and West Coast prices continue to show weakness in June vs. May 2008, other parts of the country show signs of improvement. This may be a seasonal phenomenon, given the strength of summer home buying, as opposed to a signal of recovery.
Transaction counts continue to show expected seasonal increase on a month over month basis, although substantially below levels a year ago.
Within the traded MSAs (Los Angeles, Miami, New York and Phoenix) we observe significant growth in motivated sale transactions, suggesting an increase in the absorption of foreclosed inventory.
There continues to be evidence of substantial discounts in motivated prices versus all other prices, which weighs heavily on year-over-year and month-over-month price levels.
As we said last month, trading in forwards on RPX is gaining momentum. While it is still a new market, daily contract pricing is producing a forward curve. That curve suggests weakness through 2009, stability in 2010 and a recovery in 2011. This is in contrast to some industry economists who are calling for a bottom in 2009.
Exhibit 1: 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs, Ranked by 1 Year % Change)
June 08 Rank May 08 Rank MSA PPSF June 08 vs. June 07 June 07 vs. June 06 June 08 vs. May 08 June 07 vs. May 07
1
3
Charlotte, NC
$100.62
-0.2%
5.7%
3.0%
1.3% 2 2 Columbus, OH $100.26 -0.7% -1.1% 1.1% 1.9%
3
1
Milwaukee, WI
$124.97
-2.0%
11.3%
1.0%
4.1% 4 12 Philadelphia, PA $152.14 -5.1% 5.1% 1.5% -2.6%
5
7
Atlanta, GA
$97.34
-6.6%
2.8%
0.3%
-0.5% 6 4 Seattle, WA $216.79 -7.9% 10.7% -2.5% 0.9%
7
5
New York, NY
$283.36
-8.3%
8.0%
0.1%
2.9% 8 8 Cleveland, OH $88.55 -9.0% -0.5% -0.4% 1.0%
9
10
Denver, CO
$137.68
-9.4%
0.8%
0.4%
2.0% 10 6 Chicago, IL $184.46 -10.0% 5.6% 1.7% 6.3%
11
14
Minneapolis, MN
$143.92
-10.0%
-2.1%
0.3%
0.4% 12 11 Jacksonville, FL $112.43 -10.2% -2.4% -2.5% -0.3%
13
9
Boston, MA
$220.01
-10.2%
-3.2%
0.6%
3.3% 14 13 St. Louis, MO* $102.23 -13.5% -0.2% -4.3% -0.2%
15
15
Detroit, MI
$90.71
-15.2%
-6.7%
-1.1%
1.8% 16 16 Washington, DC $197.02 -16.0% -10.0% -1.5% 2.4%
17
17
San Jose, CA
$396.18
-17.0%
0.4%
-2.2%
-1.0% 18 18 Tampa, FL $112.36 -18.5% -5.5% -0.8% 0.3%
19
19
Miami, FL
$155.61
-21.9%
-3.9%
0.3%
-0.5% 20 20 San Francisco, CA $340.51 -25.0% 0.6% -4.4% -1.7%
21
23
San Diego, CA
$235.76
-25.6%
-9.6%
-0.8%
-2.9% 22 21 Los Angeles, CA $289.15 -26.5% -0.9% -4.3% -0.9%
23
22
Phoenix, AZ
$115.28
-26.9%
-3.4%
-3.7%
-2.2% 24 25 Sacramento, CA $155.71 -27.8% -12.4% 0.8% -3.7%
25
24
Las Vegas, NV
$121.17
-30.8%
-5.7%
-2.2%
-0.3%
Manhattan Condo**
$1,168.78
2.2%
11.1%
-0.8%
2.6%
Source: 28-Day RPX value for each MSA as of 6/27/2008 = positive = neutral = negative * Historical prices used to calculate changes in St. Louis include late-arriving data not included in published series
** Manhattan Condo is a subset of the New York MSA
www.radarlogic.com
Exhibit 2: Transaction Counts1 MSA June 08 vs. June 07 June 07 vs. June 06 June 08 vs. May 08 June 07 vs. May 07
Sacramento, CA
33.6%
-37.8%
9.6%
4.7% St. Louis, MO 19.8% -88.1% 52.9% -69.3%
Las Vegas, NV
13.9%
-63.9%
6.7%
-10.6% Washington, DC 13.7% -34.3% 26.5% -7.8%
San Diego, CA
11.5%
20.0%
13.0%
14.5% Phoenix, AZ 3.2% -41.9% 10.3% 1.7%
Los Angeles, CA
-0.1%
-31.7%
17.5%
5.7% San Francisco, CA -0.8% -24.5% 19.2% 9.4%
Philadelphia, PA
-7.7%
31.3%
16.5%
-36.4% Boston, MA -11.4% -8.5% 17.5% 23.0%
San Jose, CA
-12.4%
-19.9%
23.4%
7.3% Detroit, MI -12.9% -45.4% -0.6% -12.2%
Denver, CO
-20.8%
-19.0%
3.5%
1.0% Cleveland, OH -23.2% -18.3% 19.7% 9.8%
Tampa, FL
-23.4%
-41.9%
1.3%
-2.2% Columbus, OH -23.8% -24.9% 2.3% -1.0%
New York, NY
-24.5%
-29.5%
11.6%
-5.3% Charlotte, NC -28.7% -21.8% -0.8% -3.7%
Minneapolis, MN
-29.3%
-28.6%
-3.1%
-3.3% Miami, FL -29.6% -24.6% -0.9% 6.7%
Milwaukee, WI
-30.1%
-31.0%
-0.7%
-5.2% Jacksonville, FL -31.2% -10.0% 0.4% -10.3%
Chicago, IL
-32.1%
-26.6%
10.8%
7.3% Seattle, WA -39.4% -31.8% 17.8% 4.7%
Atlanta, GA
-50.9%
65.9%
-9.5%
8.8%
Manhattan Condo
-29.3%
18.8%
9.7%
15.8%
Source: 28-Day RPX™ analytics as of 6/27/2008 1 Transaction counts represent the transactions included in the calculation of the RPX Daily Prices and may not reflect transaction volume in the market. Exhibit 3: Transaction Counts: Motivated2 vs. Other Sales June 08 % Motivated Sales June 07 % Motivated Sales June 08 vs. June 07 T.C. Change (Motivated) June 08 vs. June 07 T.C. Change (Other) June 08 vs. May 08 T.C. Change (Motivated) June 08 vs. May 08 T.C. Change (Other)
Composite
20.1%
5.2%
218.3%
-30.4%
16.8%
8.3% Los Angeles, CA 32.5% 5.1% 539.7% -28.9% 27.6% 13.2%
Miami, FL
11.6%
1.6%
427.2%
-36.8%
8.9%
-2.0% New York, NY 2.8% 1.2% 64.7% -34.2% 15.7% 11.5%
Phoenix, AZ
29.5%
3.5%
774.1%
-24.6%
29.1%
4.0%
Source: 28-Day RPX™ analytics as of 6/27/2008 2 Motivated sales are defined as liquidity-driven sales from financial institutions, foreclosure service firms, and foreclosure auction sales.
www.radarlogic.com
Exhibit 4: Metro Areas Ranked by 2-Year and 5-Year Annualized Change
Leading 5 Metro Areas (2-Year Annualized % Change)
Trailing 5 Metro Areas (2-Year Annualized % Change) Rank MSA % Change
Rank MSA % Change
1
Milwaukee, WI
4.4%
1
Sacramento, CA
-20.4% 2 Charlotte, NC 2.7%
2 Las Vegas, NV -19.3%
3
Seattle, WA
1.0%
3
San Diego, CA
-18.0% 4 Philadelphia, PA -0.1%
4 Phoenix, AZ -16.0%
5
New York, NY
-0.5%
5
Los Angeles, CA
-14.6%
Leading 5 Metro Areas (5-Year Annualized % Change)
Trailing 5 Metro Areas (5-Year Annualized % Change) Rank MSA % Change
Rank MSA % Change
1
Seattle, WA
8.6%
1
Detroit, MI
-4.3% 2 New York, NY 6.6%
2 Cleveland, OH -1.4%
3
Philadelphia, PA
6.4%
3
Sacramento, CA
-1.0% 4 Miami, FL 5.7%
4 St. Louis, MO -0.6%
5
Jacksonville, FL
5.6%
5
San Diego, CA
-0.3%
Source: 28-Day RPX™ analytics as of 6/27/2008 The following calendar contains upcoming housing market data releases in September 2008.
Housing Release Calendar
Release
Release Date National Association of Realtors (NAR): Pending Home Sales Index September 9, 2008
National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): Housing Market Index
September 16, 2008 US Census Bureau: New Residential Construction September 17, 2008
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO): House Price Index
September 23, 2008 National Association of Realtors (NAR): Existing-Home Sales September 24, 2008
US Census Bureau: New Residential Sales
September 25, 2008Release Date: September 2, 2008 June 2008 Key Characteristics All 25 MSAs continue to exhibit the weakness of the housing market from June 2007 to June 2008. 23 MSAs declined and two were neutral.
While Southwest and West Coast prices continue to show weakness in June vs. May 2008, other parts of the country show signs of improvement. This may be a seasonal phenomenon, given the strength of summer home buying, as opposed to a signal of recovery.
Transaction counts continue to show expected seasonal increase on a month over month basis, although substantially below levels a year ago.
Within the traded MSAs (Los Angeles, Miami, New York and Phoenix) we observe significant growth in motivated sale transactions, suggesting an increase in the absorption of foreclosed inventory.
There continues to be evidence of substantial discounts in motivated prices versus all other prices, which weighs heavily on year-over-year and month-over-month price levels.
As we said last month, trading in forwards on RPX is gaining momentum. While it is still a new market, daily contract pricing is producing a forward curve. That curve suggests weakness through 2009, stability in 2010 and a recovery in 2011. This is in contrast to some industry economists who are calling for a bottom in 2009.
Exhibit 1: 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs, Ranked by 1 Year % Change)
June 08 Rank May 08 Rank MSA PPSF June 08 vs. June 07 June 07 vs. June 06 June 08 vs. May 08 June 07 vs. May 07
1
3
Charlotte, NC
$100.62
-0.2%
5.7%
3.0%
1.3% 2 2 Columbus, OH $100.26 -0.7% -1.1% 1.1% 1.9%
3
1
Milwaukee, WI
$124.97
-2.0%
11.3%
1.0%
4.1% 4 12 Philadelphia, PA $152.14 -5.1% 5.1% 1.5% -2.6%
5
7
Atlanta, GA
$97.34
-6.6%
2.8%
0.3%
-0.5% 6 4 Seattle, WA $216.79 -7.9% 10.7% -2.5% 0.9%
7
5
New York, NY
$283.36
-8.3%
8.0%
0.1%
2.9% 8 8 Cleveland, OH $88.55 -9.0% -0.5% -0.4% 1.0%
9
10
Denver, CO
$137.68
-9.4%
0.8%
0.4%
2.0% 10 6 Chicago, IL $184.46 -10.0% 5.6% 1.7% 6.3%
11
14
Minneapolis, MN
$143.92
-10.0%
-2.1%
0.3%
0.4% 12 11 Jacksonville, FL $112.43 -10.2% -2.4% -2.5% -0.3%
13
9
Boston, MA
$220.01
-10.2%
-3.2%
0.6%
3.3% 14 13 St. Louis, MO* $102.23 -13.5% -0.2% -4.3% -0.2%
15
15
Detroit, MI
$90.71
-15.2%
-6.7%
-1.1%
1.8% 16 16 Washington, DC $197.02 -16.0% -10.0% -1.5% 2.4%
17
17
San Jose, CA
$396.18
-17.0%
0.4%
-2.2%
-1.0% 18 18 Tampa, FL $112.36 -18.5% -5.5% -0.8% 0.3%
19
19
Miami, FL
$155.61
-21.9%
-3.9%
0.3%
-0.5% 20 20 San Francisco, CA $340.51 -25.0% 0.6% -4.4% -1.7%
21
23
San Diego, CA
$235.76
-25.6%
-9.6%
-0.8%
-2.9% 22 21 Los Angeles, CA $289.15 -26.5% -0.9% -4.3% -0.9%
23
22
Phoenix, AZ
$115.28
-26.9%
-3.4%
-3.7%
-2.2% 24 25 Sacramento, CA $155.71 -27.8% -12.4% 0.8% -3.7%
25
24
Las Vegas, NV
$121.17
-30.8%
-5.7%
-2.2%
-0.3%
Manhattan Condo**
$1,168.78
2.2%
11.1%
-0.8%
2.6%
Source: 28-Day RPX value for each MSA as of 6/27/2008 = positive = neutral = negative * Historical prices used to calculate changes in St. Louis include late-arriving data not included in published series
** Manhattan Condo is a subset of the New York MSA
www.radarlogic.com
Exhibit 2: Transaction Counts1 MSA June 08 vs. June 07 June 07 vs. June 06 June 08 vs. May 08 June 07 vs. May 07
Sacramento, CA
33.6%
-37.8%
9.6%
4.7% St. Louis, MO 19.8% -88.1% 52.9% -69.3%
Las Vegas, NV
13.9%
-63.9%
6.7%
-10.6% Washington, DC 13.7% -34.3% 26.5% -7.8%
San Diego, CA
11.5%
20.0%
13.0%
14.5% Phoenix, AZ 3.2% -41.9% 10.3% 1.7%
Los Angeles, CA
-0.1%
-31.7%
17.5%
5.7% San Francisco, CA -0.8% -24.5% 19.2% 9.4%
Philadelphia, PA
-7.7%
31.3%
16.5%
-36.4% Boston, MA -11.4% -8.5% 17.5% 23.0%
San Jose, CA
-12.4%
-19.9%
23.4%
7.3% Detroit, MI -12.9% -45.4% -0.6% -12.2%
Denver, CO
-20.8%
-19.0%
3.5%
1.0% Cleveland, OH -23.2% -18.3% 19.7% 9.8%
Tampa, FL
-23.4%
-41.9%
1.3%
-2.2% Columbus, OH -23.8% -24.9% 2.3% -1.0%
New York, NY
-24.5%
-29.5%
11.6%
-5.3% Charlotte, NC -28.7% -21.8% -0.8% -3.7%
Minneapolis, MN
-29.3%
-28.6%
-3.1%
-3.3% Miami, FL -29.6% -24.6% -0.9% 6.7%
Milwaukee, WI
-30.1%
-31.0%
-0.7%
-5.2% Jacksonville, FL -31.2% -10.0% 0.4% -10.3%
Chicago, IL
-32.1%
-26.6%
10.8%
7.3% Seattle, WA -39.4% -31.8% 17.8% 4.7%
Atlanta, GA
-50.9%
65.9%
-9.5%
8.8%
Manhattan Condo
-29.3%
18.8%
9.7%
15.8%
Source: 28-Day RPX™ analytics as of 6/27/2008 1 Transaction counts represent the transactions included in the calculation of the RPX Daily Prices and may not reflect transaction volume in the market. Exhibit 3: Transaction Counts: Motivated2 vs. Other Sales June 08 % Motivated Sales June 07 % Motivated Sales June 08 vs. June 07 T.C. Change (Motivated) June 08 vs. June 07 T.C. Change (Other) June 08 vs. May 08 T.C. Change (Motivated) June 08 vs. May 08 T.C. Change (Other)
Composite
20.1%
5.2%
218.3%
-30.4%
16.8%
8.3% Los Angeles, CA 32.5% 5.1% 539.7% -28.9% 27.6% 13.2%
Miami, FL
11.6%
1.6%
427.2%
-36.8%
8.9%
-2.0% New York, NY 2.8% 1.2% 64.7% -34.2% 15.7% 11.5%
Phoenix, AZ
29.5%
3.5%
774.1%
-24.6%
29.1%
4.0%
Source: 28-Day RPX™ analytics as of 6/27/2008 2 Motivated sales are defined as liquidity-driven sales from financial institutions, foreclosure service firms, and foreclosure auction sales.
www.radarlogic.com
Exhibit 4: Metro Areas Ranked by 2-Year and 5-Year Annualized Change
Leading 5 Metro Areas (2-Year Annualized % Change)
Trailing 5 Metro Areas (2-Year Annualized % Change) Rank MSA % Change
Rank MSA % Change
1
Milwaukee, WI
4.4%
1
Sacramento, CA
-20.4% 2 Charlotte, NC 2.7%
2 Las Vegas, NV -19.3%
3
Seattle, WA
1.0%
3
San Diego, CA
-18.0% 4 Philadelphia, PA -0.1%
4 Phoenix, AZ -16.0%
5
New York, NY
-0.5%
5
Los Angeles, CA
-14.6%
Leading 5 Metro Areas (5-Year Annualized % Change)
Trailing 5 Metro Areas (5-Year Annualized % Change) Rank MSA % Change
Rank MSA % Change
1
Seattle, WA
8.6%
1
Detroit, MI
-4.3% 2 New York, NY 6.6%
2 Cleveland, OH -1.4%
3
Philadelphia, PA
6.4%
3
Sacramento, CA
-1.0% 4 Miami, FL 5.7%
4 St. Louis, MO -0.6%
5
Jacksonville, FL
5.6%
5
San Diego, CA
-0.3%
Source: 28-Day RPX™ analytics as of 6/27/2008 The following calendar contains upcoming housing market data releases in September 2008.
Housing Release Calendar
Release
Release Date National Association of Realtors (NAR): Pending Home Sales Index September 9, 2008
National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): Housing Market Index
September 16, 2008 US Census Bureau: New Residential Construction September 17, 2008
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO): House Price Index
September 23, 2008 National Association of Realtors (NAR): Existing-Home Sales September 24, 2008
US Census Bureau: New Residential Sales
September 25, 2008v